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Prediction markets for Request for Information
If @Aella and I go on a "proper date", we will marry, have offspring, and control the world with intellectual force.
Feb 21, 2:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
23.11%chance
5334079
OptionVotes
1824
548
[Metaculus] Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?
Jan 30, 11:22 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM
16.17%chance
12213484
OptionVotes
2087
926
Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?
Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.59%chance
913193
OptionVotes
15073
7129
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55%chance
8512836
OptionVotes
1335
1081
Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)
Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.12%chance
428528
OptionVotes
1110
864
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
27.33%chance
695805
OptionVotes
2438
2205
[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM
49.05%chance
184722
OptionVotes
1019
981
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM
19.77%chance
12994
OptionVotes
3413
2468
OptionVotes
1459
987
[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM
60.81%chance
13379
OptionVotes
1076
842
[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM
49.52%chance
2204
OptionVotes
1010
990
US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031
Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
44.14%chance
2125
OptionVotes
1125
889