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Prediction markets for Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

14.99%chance

14969486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

1409

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14534927

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

33

11

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.13%chance

221550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31548

3170

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.04%chance

3518595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22880

4371

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

246962

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

40

11

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.24%chance

1013752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

1542

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

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