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Prediction markets for Researcher and Analyst

Will Bitcoin hit $100.000 again before July 1, 2026?

Feb 22, 4:35 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

284909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

690

4

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

212895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

19

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

21885

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Judges < 2040

Teacher < 2040

53

45

36

36

35

34

28

28

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.91%chance

12799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

12537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

32

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

73

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

Will CRWV270115C00140000 expire in-the-money?

Jan 20, 3:03 PMJan 15, 4:00 PM

40.47%chance

274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

60.53%chance

371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

98

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.65%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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