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Prediction markets for Researcher and Analyst

Which country will win the AI race by 2030?

Apr 5, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

141058

OptionProbability

US

No one

China

Other

42

37

15

6

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

21885

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Judges < 2040

Teacher < 2040

53

45

36

36

35

34

28

28

Will the gold price drop below $3.5k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.94%chance

22852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

44

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

14608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

28

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

90.1%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

49

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91%chance

3203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

55

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.89%chance

7161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

86

Will World War 3 occur in 21st Century?

Oct 6, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

21.52%chance

452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

44

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.5%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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