Reserve Rights News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

New national park created

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Approval < 35%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US national bitcoin reserve created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

A new supreme court justice appointed

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Joe Biden dies

Dow rises above 65,000

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says a racial slur

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Kennedy Center is repurposed

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

BTC falls below $38,000

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump runs 4 president (physically runs >4x the average height of US presidents in a continuous go)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, hhs, fda all implemented and becomes law

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

McDonald's reopens in Russia

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US Invasion of any North/South American country

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

American Manned Lunar Landing

Approval < 25%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

War is declared against another nation

Kennedy Center is demolished

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump loses the fake tan

10% fewer government agencies

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump breaks a bone in his body

Trump dies

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down and cease to exist

Trump runs for a third term

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump pumps a plump rump (grabs and moves back and forth someone else's butt)

World war 3 occurs and global war is launched

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Repeal obamacare

Trump is assassinated

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

54 or more Republican senate seats

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

United States becomes totalitarian dictatorship

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)

[AUS] Red flag during qualifying

[AUS] At least 3 DNF

[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session

[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team

[AUS] winner has no WDC title

[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)

[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium

[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race

[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying

[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race

[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)

[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race

[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium

[JAP] Antonelli wins the race

[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying

[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race

[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race

[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race

[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions

[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying

[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race

[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] Red flag during qualifying

[MON] Red flag during the race

[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track

[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race

[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[MON] Three different teams on the podium

[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)

[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)

[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BAR] Hamilton on the podium

[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5

[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)

[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes

[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits

[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying

[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)

[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship

[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying

[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4

[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)

[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10

[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race

[SPA] Red flag in qualifying

[SPA] Antonelli wins the race

[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3

[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race

[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium

[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10

[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[SPA] Yellow flag first lap

[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2

[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3

[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4

[HUN] Antonelli on the podium

[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10

[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10

[ZAN] Leclerc on the podium of the sprint race

[ZAN] Non-Mercedes pole position (main qualifying)

[ZAN] Gasly finishes in top 10 in the main race

[ITA] Physical Safety Car during the race

[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[ITA] Italian driver wins the race

[ITA] Red Flag during the race

[ITA] Yuki Tsunoda scores a point

[ITA] Antonelli finishes the race in top 6

[MAD] Yellow flag first lap of the race

[MAD] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MAD] Kimi Antonelli wins the race

[MAD] Russel qualifies outside the top 5

[MAD] Verstappen on the podium

[MAD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[MAD] Colapinto scores points

[MAD] Linblad scores points

[MAD] An Audi scores points

[MAD] Three different teams on the podium

[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AZE] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AZE] Verstappen on podium

[AZE] A Williams finishes in top 10

[BHR] Intermediate or Wet tyres used in qualifying or race

[BHR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BHR] Antonelli scores more points than Russell

[BHR] Verstappen wins the race

[BHR] Aston Martin scores at least one point

[BHR] An Alpine reaches Q3

[BHR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BHR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Russel

[BHR] Lawson scores points

[BHR] A Ferrari on the podium

[SIN] Same driver wins Sprint and feature race

[SIN] 3+ DNF in Sprint

[SIN] Same driver takes pole in the sprint and main qualifying

[SIN] A Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[SIN] A Ferrari on the podium of the main race

[SIN] Hadjar finishes in top 10 in the main race

[COTA] A Ferrari on the podium

[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MEX] Kimi Antonelli wins the WDC Title

[MEX] Red flag during qualifying

[MEX] 4 or more DNF

[MEX] Verstappen on the podium

[MEX] Yellow flag first lap

[MEX] GP winner margin is less than 5 seconds

[BRA] Red Flag during qualifying

[BRA] Intermediate or Wet tyres used during qualifying

[BRA] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[BRA] Brazilian driver reaches Q3

[BHR] Yellow flag first lap

Leave it open for the upcoming GP (tip jar)

[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUS] Yellow flag first lap

[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)

[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day

[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session

[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session

[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)

[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start

[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped

[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race

[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium

[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)

[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)

[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?

[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF

[JAP] Yellow flag first lap

[JAP] Red flag in qualifying

[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying

[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3

[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)

[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)

[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues

[JAP] Verstappen on the podium

[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race

[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race

[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race

[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race

[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race

[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race

[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race

[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race

[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race

[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes

[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race

[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race

[BAR] Mercedes driver wins

[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4

[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying

[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)

[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium

[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race

[AUT] Red flag during qualifying

[AUT] Physical safety car during the race

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3

[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)

[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)

[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)

[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race

[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race

[AUT] Yellow flag first lap

[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)

[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race

[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)

[GBR] The same driver wins both races

[GBR] Red flag during the main race

[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying

[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds

[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race

[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race

[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race

[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race

[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying

[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)

[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)

[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race

[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race

[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race

[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6

[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[HUN] Yellow flag first lap

[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying

[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS

[HUN] Ferrari pole position

[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3

[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10

[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium

[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race

[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda scores at least one point (sprint counts)

[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda finishes either sprint or feature race ahead of Lawson

[ZAN] Same winner of the sprint and main race

[ZAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying or main qualifying

[ZAN] Ferrari pole position in the sprint qualifying

[ZAN] Antonelli scores more points than Russell over the entire weekend

[ZAN] Antonelli on the podium of the sprint race

[ZAN] Non-Mercedes driver wins the sprint race

[ZAN] Physical safety car during the main race

[ZAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[ZAN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race

[ZAN] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 in the main race

[ZAN] first and second driver finish with a gap of less than 5 seconds in the main race

[ITA] Red Flag during qualifying

[ITA] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[ITA] Ferrari driver wins the race

[ITA] Aston Martin driver scores points

[ITA] Hadjar drives in the race

[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in qual or race

[ITA] Gasly finishes the race in top 5

[ITA] Bearman scores points (top 10)

[ITA] A Ferrari on the podium

[ITA] Leclerc finishes the race ahead of Hamilton

[MAD] Leclerc misses race

[MAD] Red flag during qualifying or race

[MAD] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MAD] Carlos Sainz scores points

[MAD] At least five cars retire (DNF)

[MAD] Hamilton scores more points than Russell

[MAD] Leclerc crashes during any session and cannot participate in the rest of that session (FP, qualy or race)

[MAD] At least one car will be disqualified due to plank wear. Doesn't matter if they later get reinstated

[MAD] An Audi reaches Q3

[MAD] A Ferrari on the podium

[MAD] Antonelli leads at the end of the first lap of the main race

[AZE] Red Flag during qualifying or race

[AZE] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[AZE] One Aston Martin finishes the race (lapped ok)

[AZE] Lewis Hamilton finishes ahead of Charles Leclerc (race)

[AZE] Kimi Antonelli scores more points than George Russel

[AZE] An Audi reaches Q3

[AZE] A Ferrari on the podium

[AZE] Antonelli on the podium

[BHR] At least 5 cars DNS/DNF

[BHR] Mercedes double podium

[BHR] Three WDC winners on podium

[BHR] One team qualifies P1 and P2

[BHR] RBR double podium

[BHR] At least one car retires due to a collision with another car

[SIN] RBR double podium in main race

[SIN] Antonelli wins main race

[SIN] Aston scores at least one point over the weekend

[SIN] 5+ DNF in feature race

[SIN] Red Flag in the main qualifying

[SIN] Impeding penalty during the main qualifying

[SIN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[SIN] Russel finishes the main race in top 6

[SIN] Both Racing Bulls score points in the main race

[SIN] Bearman scores points in the main race

[SIN] Sainz scores points in the main race

[SIN] Intermediate or wet tyres used in the main race

[COTA] Physical Safety Car during the race

[COTA] Red flag during qualifying

[COTA] Antonelli secures WDC

[COTA] A McLaren driver on the podium

[COTA] Max Verstappen wins the race

[COTA] A Ferrari qualifies P1 or P2

[COTA] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[COTA] A Haas reaches Q3

[COTA] Race winner has 2 or more tire changes

[COTA] Haas score at least 1 point

[COTA] An Audi finishes the race in top 10

[COTA] Hadjar on the podium

[COTA] Both Racing Bulls score points

[COTA] 4 or more DNF

[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MEX] Both Ferraris on the podium

[MEX] Piastri finishes outside the top 10

[MEX] An Audi scores points

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Genesis job, what will be my bonus in my first full year? (At a rate of 1 percentage point = $3000. So e.g. if it's $100k this answer resolves to 33%.)

If I accept the Genesis job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

NO

YES

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Gretchen Whitmer

NO

YES

YES

NO

YES

YES