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Top stories

France, Germany, UK Warn Iran of UN Snapback Sanctions by End-August

US Foreign Policy

France, Germany, UK Warn Iran of UN Snapback Sanctions by End-August

Authors

36

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Resolution

N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

41119801

OptionProbability

Stage a musical 🐉

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Go on 20 dates 💌

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

Make N.C.Y.BOT the most profitable non-house bot on Manifold 🤖

91

76

70

58

53

52

45

32

19

16

14

6

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, Low Resolution

May 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

181104772

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14892264

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

Mar 31, 12:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.12%chance

9439617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

929

Polymarket moves away from UMA Resolutions in 2025

Oct 8, 11:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.32%chance

135208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

707

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

Jun 12, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.96%chance

61150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1563

640

Proof of stack market resolution

Dec 13, 7:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.37%chance

18888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

100

Will my blog succeed in its inelegant New Year's resolution for 2025?

Jan 4, 12:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

74.29%chance

3700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1700

588

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year

Nov 27, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.2%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

961

Will I have a surprising market resolution before the end of 2026?

Apr 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.2%chance

6290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Will YouTube resolutely address the problem of clickbait thumbnails and video titles by 2029?

Mar 12, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.61%chance

12236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

940

Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

Mar 19, 3:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

19150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

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