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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.26%chance

321858480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6979

3610

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.69%chance

337103019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5028

3694

Will this market resolve?

Nov 2, 1:14 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

96.05%chance

12189909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2719

1112

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.56%chance

9183898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

333

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

15979273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

16173011

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

28

27

12

5

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4719284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.83%chance

6812998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

679

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 72 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

49.78%chance

15223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will this market resolve below 50%?

Jan 8, 3:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.46%chance

16207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

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