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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.28%chance

344879198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4502

3083

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

328673400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

2354

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

225114087

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Other

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

19

14

12

11

10

6

6

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4159

4150

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

16280148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

[RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms

Sep 26, 3:00 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

98.13%chance

3772321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72516

1379

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.13%chance

11354659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4779

831

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.14%chance

8124914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

413

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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