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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.25%chance

325859713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7539

3536

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

205104681

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

26

20

13

13

6

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5080

3679

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45%chance

9485003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

435

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

16179283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

953

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

8341568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3047

1957

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.39%chance

6813009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

669

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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