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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.56%chance

335863543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5969

3766

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.37%chance

326670197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2774

2316

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

220110352

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Other

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

24

22

13

8

8

6

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.26%chance

346106670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5587

3474

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57%chance

9585361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

299

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

16280148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.06%chance

10047822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4172

1076

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.31%chance

6913039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

635

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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