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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

324859502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7349

3560

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.19%chance

315655506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2744

2381

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.94%chance

157585652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17654

1109

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5080

3679

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50.91%chance

9183970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

362

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

16179283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

953

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

17175989

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

39

20

12

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.87%chance

4819294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

870

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.83%chance

6812998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

679

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

13402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

50.37%chance

17245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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