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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.89%chance

314853485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6670

3655

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.98%chance

156585645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18319

1102

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.9%chance

33599775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4861

3188

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.23%chance

9083678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

337

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.47%chance

15471093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

976

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

15770618

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

31

24

7

6

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.83%chance

6812998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

679

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.14%chance

599061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

735

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

Will this market resolve below 50%?

Jan 8, 3:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.48%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

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