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Prediction markets for RESOLV

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.9%chance

328859818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7170

3584

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

324668330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2715

2447

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

217108287

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

22

21

14

11

6

5

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.21%chance

345105705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6389

3204

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

16280148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.82%chance

9747585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4156

1084

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44.44%chance

9633262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

260

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

Mar 15, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.39%chance

6813009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

669

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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