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Prediction markets for Resources

When will we first use something produced from resources gathered in space?

Feb 9, 7:47 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

445208

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

45

41

38

34

25

20

6

0

0

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

815

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026

Sep 9, 7:33 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

24.21%chance

92319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1769

565

Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?

Dec 16, 2:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.89%chance

161683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2459

843

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by May 1, 2026?

Sep 9, 7:16 PMMay 2, 11:59 PM

34.4%chance

71456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

724

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

56.84%chance

271358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

695

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

14739

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

53

36

11

Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.69%chance

11609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

111

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

910

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

954

Will there be enough hardware resources by 2040 for AI to take 1% of all jobs in the world if other factors allow it?

Jan 4, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.56%chance

4123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

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