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Prediction markets for Resources

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

815

Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?

Dec 16, 2:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.89%chance

161683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2459

843

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

45.87%chance

281562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

899

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.69%chance

11609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

111

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

101

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

954

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $10K in revenue?

May 6, 4:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.42%chance

10354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

421

203

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

142

Will there be enough hardware resources by 2040 for AI to take 1% of all jobs in the world if other factors allow it?

Jan 4, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.98%chance

6136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $1M in revenue?

May 6, 4:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.51%chance

582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

117

Resource use of quantum 256-bit ECDLP attacks EoY 2028

Apr 2, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates

≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 50 million Toffoli gates

≤ 950 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates

50

50

28

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