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Prediction markets for Resources

When will we first use something produced from resources gathered in space?

Feb 9, 7:47 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

445208

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

45

41

38

34

25

20

6

0

0

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

815

When will Supreme Court rule on Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 22, 3:40 AMJul 17, 11:59 PM

83862

OptionProbability

Jan 16 - Feb 19 2026

Feb 20 - Mar 19 2026

Mar 20 - Apr 16 2026

Apr 17 - May 14 2026

May 15 - Jun 18 2026

Jun 19 - July 16 2026

On or after July 17 2026

Nov 21 - Dec 18, 2025

Dec 19 2025 - Jan 15 2025

58

10

7

7

6

6

4

1

1

Kavanaugh votes against Trump in Learning Resources tariff case?

Nov 7, 6:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.44%chance

91396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1548

646

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

56.84%chance

271358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

695

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026

Sep 9, 7:33 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

34.76%chance

7855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

730

Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?

Dec 16, 2:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.14%chance

14756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1532

905

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

14739

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

53

36

11

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by May 1, 2026?

Sep 9, 7:16 PMMay 2, 11:59 PM

34.87%chance

6527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

732

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

910

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.23%chance

13446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

944

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