Resources News

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

YES

1103

815

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026

Sep 9, 7:33 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

24.11%chance

92324

OptionVotes

YES

1774

564

Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?

Dec 16, 2:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.89%chance

161683

OptionVotes

YES

2459

843

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

45.87%chance

281562

OptionVotes

YES

1068

899

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

1197

654

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

14739

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

490

101

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

1107

954

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

350

142

Will US entities' control over Congolese cobalt resources exceed 40 on a scale of 1-100 by August 11, 2026?

Feb 12, 12:01 AMAug 11, 12:01 AM

46.02%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $1M in revenue?

May 6, 4:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.51%chance

582

OptionVotes

YES

246

117

Resource use of quantum 256-bit ECDLP attacks EoY 2028

Apr 2, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates

≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 50 million Toffoli gates

≤ 950 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates

Resources News

Prediction markets for Resources

Prediction markets for Resources

Prediction markets for Resources

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026

Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Will US entities' control over Congolese cobalt resources exceed 40 on a scale of 1-100 by August 11, 2026?

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $1M in revenue?

Resource use of quantum 256-bit ECDLP attacks EoY 2028

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