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Prediction markets for Responsible AI

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516515

OptionProbability

Palantir

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

15

15

13

11

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will Character AI be found responsible for teenager's suicide?

Oct 23, 1:13 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

9.42%chance

17638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Apr 8, 7:16 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

9496

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google (DeepMind)

xAI

Government / military lab

Open-source community

Another private company

Meta

NVIDIA

Amazon (AWS)

A decentralized/open-source collaborative effort

A project developed by a terrorist or rogue actor using open-source tools

Microsoft

55

48

35

28

28

28

28

20

20

20

20

20

15

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.61%chance

23479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

991

By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?

Apr 18, 6:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

39.7%chance

13276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

977

Will "AI 2027: Responses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 3:55 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.61%chance

2275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

983

The first religion centred around the prophetic writings and responses of AI or an AI will be founded before Oct 2026

Oct 16, 7:59 AMOct 15, 10:59 PM

76.8%chance

6236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

11205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

150

Will AI be directly responsible for causing an accident that results in 500 deaths by 2028?

Dec 18, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

9137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

470

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