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Prediction markets for Responsible AI Standard

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

Jul 31, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4317261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3694

560

Who will win the 2026 F1 season World Driver's Championship

Feb 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3912548

OptionProbability

Kimi Antonelli

Lewis Hamilton

Max Verstappen

Fernando Alonso

Lando Norris

Valtteri Bottas

Nico Hulkenberg

Sergio Perez

Lance Stroll

Oscar Piastri

George Russell

Charles leclerc

Carlos Sainz

Alex Albon

Isack Hadjar

Liam lawson

Arvind Lindblad

Estaben Ocon

Oliver Bearman

Gabriel Bortoleto

Pierre Gasly

Franco Colapinto

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the 2028 Presidential Election Winner Mog the Runner-up?

Feb 26, 2:28 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

58.66%chance

7345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

813

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Will it be illegal to give a child an adult phone before 2036?

Oct 25, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.13%chance

6192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?

Aug 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9102

OptionProbability

Human misuse of AI

Antagonistic AI

Indifferent (to humans) AI

Pro-human AI catastrophic mistake

32

30

28

10

Will Metaculus launch an app before 2034?

Oct 12, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

61.14%chance

7100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

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