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Prediction markets for Resy

How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?

Sep 10, 8:16 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

7836816

OptionProbability

1+ OpenAI employees resign

2+ Anthropic employees resign

2+ OpenAI employees resign

3+ Anthropic employees resign

3+ OpenAI employees resign

4+ Anthropic employees resign

4+ OpenAI employees resign

5+ Anthropic employees resign

5+ OpenAI employees resign

48

45

24

22

18

12

11

7

6

Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?

Jul 27, 7:24 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

18.13%chance

13835823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2017

202

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.61%chance

11322990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4515

1367

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:57 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

2.32%chance

3919673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6489

154

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

30.63%chance

10218504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

1767

Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.04%chance

508914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

666

Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.57%chance

266105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4571

219

Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:39 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

233625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2465

406

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.37%chance

333275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

858

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

U.S. implements residence-based taxation for Americans abroad by 2028

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

22.24%chance

91400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1933

580

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

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