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Prediction markets for Resy

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:57 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

3.06%chance

3918655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5626

178

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

30.29%chance

10218481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2249

1757

Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63%chance

487844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

942

937

Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.57%chance

266105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4571

219

Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?

Jul 27, 7:24 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

15.27%chance

435402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2151

176

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.44%chance

293090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

U.S. implements residence-based taxation for Americans abroad by 2028

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

22.24%chance

91400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1933

580

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

51%chance

6799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

How many unique couples who do not reside in NH attend the Family Planning Weekend?

Jun 12, 2:50 AMAug 31, 3:50 AM

00

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 3

Above 6

Above 9

Above 12

50

50

50

50

50

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