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Prediction markets for Return of Risk

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

3720977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

961

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

809

When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?

Feb 9, 9:35 AMMar 4, 2:59 AM

93355

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

2

2

2

1

0

0

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.55%chance

152695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2098

478

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 15, 6:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

191864

OptionProbability

10

9

0-3

7-8

4-6

98

1

1

0

0

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.43%chance

311818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Will Guan Heng be deported from the US to China?

Dec 15, 7:21 AMJun 30, 7:05 AM

17.67%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

97

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Anthropic

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Zhipu / Z.ai

StepFun

Other (any company not listed above)

14

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

Apr 25, 11:50 AM

00

Would you play this version of the Snake Eyes game?

Aug 24, 6:58 PMApr 18, 6:59 AM

200

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