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Prediction markets for Return of Risk

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

2218194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

940

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.73%chance

2517642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.45%chance

111879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

775

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 15, 6:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

191864

OptionProbability

10

9

0-3

7-8

4-6

98

1

1

0

0

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will Guan Heng be deported from the US to China?

Dec 15, 7:21 AMJun 30, 7:05 AM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Arb bots for confident markets

Nov 18, 10:48 PM

00

Would you play this version of the Snake Eyes game?

Aug 24, 6:58 PMApr 18, 6:59 AM

200

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

Apr 25, 11:50 AM

00

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