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Prediction markets for Return of Risk

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.23%chance

4724076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

175730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5031

199

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

964

918

When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?

Feb 9, 9:35 AMMar 4, 2:59 AM

93355

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

2

2

2

1

0

0

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.15%chance

332134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 15, 6:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

191864

OptionProbability

10

9

0-3

7-8

4-6

98

1

1

0

0

Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?

Sep 1, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.15%chance

5985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

928

11

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

573

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

StepFun

Anthropic

OpenAI

16

10

10

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

5

5

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

Apr 25, 11:50 AM

00

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