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Prediction markets for Return of Risk

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.38%chance

424565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

981

837

When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?

Feb 9, 9:35 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

93355

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2026

Before 2027

Before 2025

2

2

2

1

1

0

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 15, 6:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

191864

OptionProbability

10

9

0-3

7-8

4-6

98

1

1

0

0

Will Manifold Markets introduce leveraged betting by Dec 31, 2025?

Mar 3, 8:15 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

4.35%chance

81107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

469

21

Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?

Feb 7, 4:54 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

46.74%chance

7321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

72

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

Will Guan Heng be deported from the US to China?

Dec 15, 7:21 AMDec 16, 7:05 AM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Arb bots for confident markets

Nov 18, 10:48 PM

00

Would you play this version of the Snake Eyes game?

Aug 24, 6:58 PMApr 18, 6:59 AM

200

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