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Prediction markets for Return On Investment

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.4%chance

4122857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

844

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.09%chance

7713190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5918

1919

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.42%chance

253670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Which investment will give the best return 1 year after Jan 1st 2026?

Nov 16, 7:53 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

151280

OptionProbability

ASML stock

TSMC stock

United Healthcare UNH

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF

SFTBY Softbank

Amazon stock AMZN

Google/Alphabet stock

ProShares Short QQQ

Bitcoin BTC

Gold

Apple stock AAPL

Nvidia stock NVDA

Microsoft stock MSFT

Gamestop stock GME

Facebook stock META

Ethereum ETH

Tesla stock TSLA

Reddit stock RDDT

XRP Ripple

Dogecoin DOGE

Domino Pizza DPZ

Other

40

15

6

5

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?

Jul 30, 5:35 PMSep 1, 11:00 PM

50.21%chance

18955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

39.72%chance

20807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

683

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

When will Praxis announce that it is ending operations and returning all remaining funds to investors?

Dec 12, 6:23 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

9373

OptionProbability

After June 30th 2028

Before Jan 1 2026

After Jan 1 2026 but before Jan 1 2027

After Jan 1 2027 but before June 30th 2028

48

26

18

8

Will https://www.generalproximity.bio/ generate positive return for its investors?

Jul 3, 7:42 PMJul 3, 7:42 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Equator Therapeutics (equatortherapeutics.com) generate positive return for its investors?

Jul 3, 7:41 PMDec 31, 8:41 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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