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Prediction markets for Returnal

Will someone return from Mars before 2050

Aug 8, 5:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.86%chance

5440827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

806

Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

54.52%chance

26127628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1827

1122

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8721359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

1073

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

May 29, 2:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.97%chance

8416100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

648

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]

Jun 24, 4:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

2212846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [actually]

Feb 3, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.14%chance

4712522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

931

11

Will Jack MA return as a senior executive to Alibaba by 2026 year end?

Jan 4, 2:36 PMDec 11, 2:59 AM

9.45%chance

809276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8755

1504

Will Johnny Depp return to Pirates of the Caribbean 6?

Dec 28, 11:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

344950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

527

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.

Jun 30, 4:51 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

46.01%chance

172037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]

Aug 31, 2:30 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.66%chance

121577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

863

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

935

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