Reuters News

>$25B

$20.1-25B

$17.6-20B

$15.1-17.5B

<$5B

$5-10B

$10.1-12.5B

The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025

The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital

Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist

The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers

The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs

I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025

Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data

The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025

Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company

The company will include at least one image on its website

The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU

The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA

The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will have at least 100 employees

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher

The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)

The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities

The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model

The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)

The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders

The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers

I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)

The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025

The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)

The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier

The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)

The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability

The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input

The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment

I’ll work there (@mr_mino)

The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment

The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/

The company will be involved in a lawsuit

It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company

The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher

The company will make a GAN

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought

It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)

The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms

It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so

The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers

The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website

The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources

Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company

The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)

The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology

The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory

Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen

The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines

The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages

The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system

The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system

I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing

Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players

There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members

The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll

The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024

The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations

The company will be acquired by another company

Elon musk will be an investor of the company

The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)

The company will release an app available on iPhone or android

The company will change its name

The company will be merged with or acquired by another company

The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company

The company will build their own AI chips

Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW

The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals

The company will declare bankruptcy

The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract

The company will be publicly traded

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

I'll work there (@AndrewG)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW

The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

YES

YES

Max Tegmark

Emmett Shear

Bruce Schneier

George Church

Scott Aaronson

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ben Bernanke

Stephen Fry

Tim Urban

Grimes

Scott Alexander

A former Fed Chair

Neel Nanda

A professor of a Chinese university

Stuart Russell

Yoshua Bengio

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Carl Feynman

Vitalik Buterin

Yuval Noah Harari

Nick Bostrom

Dwarkesh Patel

Kevin Roose

Geoffrey Irving

Billy Perrigo

Manifold

Helen Toner

Gwern

Ezra Klein

Evan Hubinger

Patrick McKenzie

Publishers Weekly

Vox

Christine Peterson

Keach Hagey

Bill Gates

Joe Rogan

San Francisco Chronicle

Peter Singer

Booklist

NPR

Politico

Lex Fridman

Any five current members of the UK Parliament

The Economist

Matthew Yglesias

David Chalmers

A former US Secretary of Treasury

A former US Secretary of State

A Scientific American editorial

Time

A former US Secretary of Energy

A former US Secretary of Commerce

WIRED

Gillian Hadfield

Karen Hao

A review in The Atlantic

Telegraph

Kurzgesagt

The New York Times Book Review

Peter Norvig

At least five Nobel laureates

Rolling Stone

The New Yorker

Tucker Carlson

A Science editorial

The Guardian

Ray Kurzweil

John Schulman

A current pope

Financial Times

Bloomberg Businessweek

Forbes

A New Scientist editorial

BBC

Eric Schmidt

A current US Secretary of Treasury

Jimmy Fallon

John Oliver

IEEE Spectrum

Vanity Fair

Elon Musk

Mustafa Suleyman

A current UK prime minister

Judea Pearl

António Guterres

Foreign Affairs

Barack Obama

Anthropic

A Nature editorial

The Washington Post

Associated Press

Any five current United States representatives

The Wall Street Journal

Shane Legg

Alexandr Wang

Ilya Sutskever

roon

Daron Acemoglu

A high-ranking Chinese government official

Reuters

RFK Jr

Richard Sutton

Ivanka Trump

Narendra Modi

Dario Amodei

Joe Biden

Terence Tao

OpenAI

CNN

Any five current United States senators

Peter Thiel

Benjamin Netanyahu

Demis Hassabis

Mira Murati

A current Fed Chair

Ursula von der Leyen

DeepMind

JD Vance

Daniela Amodei

Jensen Huang

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Satya Nadella

Greg Egan

A current US Secretary of Energy

Bill Clinton

JK Rowling

Noam Chomsky

Donald J. Trump

Fox News

Chris Olah

A current US Secretary of Commerce

A current US Secretary of State

Taylor Swift

Mr. Beast

Vladimir Putin

Tim Cook

Kamala Harris

King Charles

Xi Jinping

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

Axios

Wired

CNN

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

The New York Times

Wikimedia Foundation

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Sierra Club

Black Lives Matter

Greenpeace

YES

NO

NO

YES

YES