Reve News

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Sep 4, 7:49 AMMay 1, 5:59 AM

3429843

OptionProbability

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3727127

OptionProbability

Other

$90-100B

$80-90B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$50-60B

$40-50B

<$40B

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

1722

1481

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

10515922

OptionVotes

YES

5988

1052

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

2.17%chance

5211495

OptionVotes

YES

1752

939

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Apr 24, 11:26 PMApr 24, 11:20 PM

33.3%chance

187719

OptionVotes

YES

14154

7065

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.63%chance

317489

OptionVotes

YES

1211

829

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.92%chance

266710

OptionVotes

YES

1251

784

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

614993

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

151816

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.15%chance

381228

OptionVotes

YES

2133

1742

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

YES

4054

3761

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Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

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