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Prediction markets for Rewards

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

What will be the value of Wells Fargo Rewards Points at the end of 2026?

Sep 28, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1330

OptionProbability

Below 1.80

1.80 - 1.99

2.00 - 2.19

2.20 - 2.29

2.30+

39

39

13

5

4

Will "Realistic Reward Hacking Induces Different an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 12, 9:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

What will be the value of American Express Membership Rewards Points at the end of 2026?

Sep 28, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2250

OptionProbability

1.80 - 1.99

2.00 - 2.19

2.20 - 2.29

2.30+

Below 1.80

30

30

30

6

5

What will be the value of Citi ThankYou Rewards Points at the end of 2026?

Sep 28, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1170

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will "Natural emergent misalignment from reward hac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 22, 12:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.46%chance

3135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

905

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.2%chance

4131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

811

Conditional on friendly ASI, will reasonable, selfless positions be commensurately rewarded?

Dec 31, 2:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.62%chance

356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

38

Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 26, 12:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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