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Prediction markets for Rewards

Where will we honeymoon? (Subsidized! Reward for new answers!)

Sep 5, 8:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3021547

OptionProbability

Other

Muskogee, Oklahoma

No honeymoon occurs

New Zealand

Portugal

Costa Rica

Spain

Mexico

Seychelles

Australia

Hawaii

Mauritius

Iceland

India

Staten Island, New York

The United Kingdom

The Bahamas

Sequoia National Park (and surrounding parks)

France

Belgium

California

Austria

Å, Lofoten, Norway

Italy

Japan

South Korea

Thailand

Brazil

Ireland

Trans-Siberian Railway

Mount Rainier national park

Greece

Las Vegas, Nevada

Amsterdam

Bali

Maldives

Fiji

Yellowstone National Park

Nice, France

Budapest

Prague

Banff, Canada

Phuket

Chiang Mai

Samui

Krabi

Rovinj, Croatia

North Korea

Antarctica

Sealand

13

11

9

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will Bitcoin change its block reward mechanism by 2040?

Mar 18, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.67%chance

85600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

465

128

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

916

[Rewards for good comments] A COVID-19 vaccine available in the USA at time of market creation is discovered to have adverse cognitive effects

Jan 8, 8:21 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

14.63%chance

7290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

135

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

Will the Global Carbon Reward be realized in a substantial form by 2040?

Feb 9, 10:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.44%chance

787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

145

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.28%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

761

Conditional on friendly ASI, will reasonable, selfless positions be commensurately rewarded?

Dec 31, 2:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.01%chance

246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

27

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

Oct 4, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.1%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Not retaliating rewarded (Trump tariffs)

Apr 30, 3:52 AMDec 31, 2:12 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act ever be passed?

Oct 4, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.44%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

55

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