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Prediction markets for Rhetor

Will the US move forward with constructing the "Golden Dome" in 2025?

Jun 22, 1:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.59%chance

4825402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15502

65

Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?

Feb 25, 5:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

25.94%chance

224683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

955

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

241806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

713

Will Zohran Mamdani be arrested or deported by EOY2025?

Jun 26, 6:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.28%chance

231080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

583

258

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

50.84%chance

20569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

803

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

May 2, 1:42 PMMay 2, 1:42 PM

18516

OptionProbability

2 to 3 years

1 to 2 years

3 to 4 years

Full 4-year term or more

6 to 12 months

Less than 6 months

38

26

21

12

2

1

Will a "flood of pro-Tate rhetoric magically crop up on Twitter"?

Jan 22, 4:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.88%chance

14492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will China turn on Russia before 2030?

Jan 13, 4:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21%chance

8360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

36.31%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Knowing Trump won the popular vote by 1.5%, how would Nikki Haley have performed had she been the Republican nominee?

Nov 21, 6:45 PM

150

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