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Prediction markets for Ridiculousness

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

118634

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Oct 13, 3:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.39%chance

468096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

394

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

294576

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

33

23

13

9

7

3

1

What is the risk-free interest rate for markets with ridiculously distant resolution dates?

Apr 12, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

2.6%chance

62127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

704

55

Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?

Jul 23, 10:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.05%chance

141012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

910

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD?

Apr 15, 3:45 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.95%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Conditions for Second Coming of Christ better in 2030 than 2024?

Mar 24, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.01%chance

673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will Imu be the most beautiful or the most ridiculous thing when revealed

Mar 17, 7:33 PM

100

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