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Prediction markets for Rivalry

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.24%chance

9625869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

899

Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?

Jul 23, 1:46 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM

37.42%chance

249552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

773

Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?

Aug 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.55%chance

634665

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

574

Will Elon Musk successfully primary any incumbent Democrats in the next election?

Dec 21, 11:05 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.8%chance

131785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

976

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.09%chance

171580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

928

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.97%chance

261463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

919

Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse get a 95% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes?

Mar 24, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.1%chance

401385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

825

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.52%chance

321019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

784

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.59%chance

28910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

676

Will LBJ #5 by Robert Caro come out before 2030?

Jul 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.36%chance

9729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?

Oct 31, 7:05 AMNov 8, 4:59 AM

31.19%chance

13361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

929

Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?

Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.79%chance

15332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

986

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