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Prediction markets for Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

70

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

12.59%chance

24569450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2232

675

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.83%chance

277974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5859

171

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Oct 11, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

626505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2844

352

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.73%chance

153080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2885

347

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]

Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.67%chance

72390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

637

Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.57%chance

432228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

858

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]

Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.12%chance

91823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2369

422

Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?

Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.01%chance

211307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

867

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.25%chance

221018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

922

A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM

59.67%chance

9426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

822

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.76%chance

4380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

882

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