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Prediction markets for Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143239648

OptionProbability

2026

2024

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

35.09%chance

282109556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

911

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Oct 11, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.79%chance

647102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3442

291

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

196841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6020

166

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]

Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.77%chance

102846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

615

Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

83.82%chance

432328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

838

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]

Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.16%chance

102023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2569

389

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.02%chance

101372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

516

Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?

Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.01%chance

211307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

867

A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM

70.73%chance

121137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1554

643

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77.63%chance

231068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

972

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

4519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

933

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