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Prediction markets for Robotaxis

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

111105193

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

51

14

13

7

6

4

4

1

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

23460317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2365

657

Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?

Jan 21, 9:03 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

65.47%chance

8037359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1468

354

Tesla's robotaxi fleet to cover 50% of U.S. population by December 31, 2025

Jul 23, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

269701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.36%chance

267474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5359

187

Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025

Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.23%chance

276683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3880

258

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Oct 11, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

616449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2844

352

9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

15.52%chance

353613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

429

Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67.79%chance

411593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

805

Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?

Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.01%chance

211307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

867

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.49%chance

91037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

569

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.52%chance

21918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

946

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