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Prediction markets for Roll

Rolls Royce SMR nuclear power by 2030?

Jul 18, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.46%chance

232228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

842

Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Jan 1, 4:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.98%chance

3677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

💿Who will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 22, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9586

OptionProbability

The Smiths

Devo

Brian Eno

Soundgarden

Linkin Park

Blink 182

System of a Down

Muse

Björk

Gorillaz

OK Go

John Coltrane

38

38

35

30

25

19

18

16

10

10

10

9

If Discord rolls out global age verification requirements, will the age verification data be breached in 2026?

Feb 11, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.95%chance

10433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will Oasis be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame before the end of 2030?

Feb 14, 8:48 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

82.73%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

44

What year will 1 GWh of cell production (containing QS tech) roll off the line?

Sep 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

250

OptionProbability

Jan 2027 - Dec 2028

Jan 2029 - Dec 2030

Before EOY 2026

After 2030

39

39

11

11

New Rolling Stones pinball machine before 2031?

Nov 28, 8:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.33%chance

437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Newsom's SB 9 suspension rolled back?

Aug 7, 8:21 PMAug 1, 8:14 PM

45.7%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will The Smiths be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame before the end of 2028?

May 3, 2:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.59%chance

532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Rolling Stones - Who will die next? Keith, Mick or Ronnie

Jan 1, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:18 PM

230

OptionProbability

Keith

Mick

Ronnie

59

20

20

Will "Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 3:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Re-rolling environment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 3, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.43%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

970

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