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Prediction markets for Rooms

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.73%chance

8801874824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40327

9074

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

44%chance

215112055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

887

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34.22%chance

3312739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

938

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Feb 10, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.72%chance

306948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

876

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

32.03%chance

343381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

757

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Feb 7, 10:31 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.92%chance

342389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

957

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

Feb 3, 7:00 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.38%chance

292163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

973

Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?

Feb 11, 4:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34%chance

241636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

914

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Aug 4, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.32%chance

291146

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1038

965

Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)

Aug 2, 4:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.92%chance

21961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

967

Will you be able to float globs of ferrofluid in your room by 2030?

Jul 28, 5:18 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.57%chance

18658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

836

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