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Prediction markets for Rooms

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.67%chance

8891900059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25492

10511

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

54.14%chance

226114989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2033?

Jan 5, 5:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.98%chance

6014365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

863

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

3413116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

995

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

88.26%chance

397502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2743

365

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Feb 10, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.11%chance

317123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

676

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.85%chance

363777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

645

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

Feb 3, 7:00 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29.15%chance

312615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

773

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Feb 7, 10:31 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34.48%chance

352590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

704

Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?

Feb 11, 4:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.9%chance

261671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

864

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Aug 4, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.67%chance

301196

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1015

982

Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)

Aug 2, 4:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.94%chance

211011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

954

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