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Prediction markets for Rooms

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.24%chance

8561819392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34119

9563

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

3.29%chance

13998817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35597

525

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

Jul 30, 12:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.2%chance

9898747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

848

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM

1%chance

4173665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6112

838

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

75.07%chance

14523253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1735

576

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.42%chance

2812167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

641

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.33%chance

367280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2625

381

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Feb 10, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.5%chance

276478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

407

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54.27%chance

313002

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

378

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Feb 7, 10:31 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

41.83%chance

311994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

547

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

Feb 3, 7:00 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.48%chance

271788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

598

Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?

Feb 11, 4:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.67%chance

221285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

844

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