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Prediction markets for Rooms

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.41%chance

8651855680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48027

8571

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

1.05%chance

144115514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50587

234

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM

1.19%chance

4273675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5203

848

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

41.71%chance

16032249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

42.11%chance

3112543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

895

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Feb 10, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31.06%chance

296848

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

776

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.27%chance

333281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

657

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Feb 7, 10:31 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.84%chance

332289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

842

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

Feb 3, 7:00 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.57%chance

292043

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

854

Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?

Feb 11, 4:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.09%chance

241606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

859

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Aug 4, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.32%chance

291146

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1038

965

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