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Prediction markets for Rule 11

US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.58%chance

13330649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2028

494

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Jan 1, 8:11 PMJun 30, 7:10 PM

25.98%chance

12026535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

942

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

37.47%chance

5511514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

660

Will Zohran Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Nov 8, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.8%chance

1711205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

831

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Is Q* about solving maths problems?

Nov 27, 6:52 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.03%chance

263160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

837

Will Magic: The Gathering have "you may cast this card without paying its mana cost" keyworded before 2030?

Jul 6, 2:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.08%chance

152180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2285

438

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Jan 3, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.15%chance

321693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

981

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.58%chance

6850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

555

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040?

Nov 1, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.38%chance

12477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

1039

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