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Prediction markets for Rule 11

US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

14135410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2846

352

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

Will Zohran Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Nov 8, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.43%chance

2111888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

950

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Jan 3, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.15%chance

321693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

981

Bitcoin $50K before $90K?

Feb 23, 8:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.15%chance

161565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

854

Bitcoin $55K before $85K?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMDec 31, 9:45 AM

37.6%chance

111547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

776

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

7950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

526

Bitcoin $45K before $100K?

Feb 23, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.95%chance

4550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

701

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040?

Nov 1, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.38%chance

12477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

1039

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