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Prediction markets for Rule 11

US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.64%chance

14438211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6080

165

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

66.88%chance

6313748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

793

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

Aug 19, 3:17 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

27.33%chance

14610416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.73%chance

143335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1675

597

Is Q* about solving maths problems?

Nov 27, 6:52 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.03%chance

263160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

837

Bitcoin $45K before $100K?

Feb 23, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

91938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

588

Will the California legislature override any gubernatorial veto by the end of 2027

Sep 14, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.18%chance

5828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040?

Nov 1, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.38%chance

12477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

1039

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