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Prediction markets for Rule 11

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.32%chance

5110194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

902

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

68.85%chance

1710146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14867

6726

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

983

Is Q* about solving maths problems?

Nov 27, 6:52 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.03%chance

263160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

837

Will Magic: The Gathering have "you may cast this card without paying its mana cost" keyworded before 2030?

Jul 6, 2:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.08%chance

152180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2285

438

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Jan 3, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.15%chance

321693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

981

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition [Polymarket]

Sep 21, 2:32 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

54.97%chance

111389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.58%chance

6850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

555

Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025?

Sep 20, 6:06 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

29.73%chance

8671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040?

Nov 1, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.19%chance

12427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

949

Will Zohran Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Nov 8, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

926

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