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Prediction markets for Rule 11

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.75%chance

4910166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

911

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Jun 10, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.49%chance

153599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1970

508

Is Q* about solving maths problems?

Nov 27, 6:52 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.44%chance

253110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

787

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

796

Will Magic: The Gathering have "you may cast this card without paying its mana cost" keyworded before 2030?

Jul 6, 2:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.07%chance

142160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2285

438

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Jan 3, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

311691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

979

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.58%chance

6850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

555

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040?

Nov 1, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.19%chance

12427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

949

Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025?

Sep 20, 6:06 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

39.5%chance

5371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Are sterile neutrinos realized in nature?

Aug 30, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.3%chance

13188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

How many votes to confirm Mike Waltz as UN Ambassador by September 19?

Jun 29, 5:46 AMSep 20, 11:59 PM

172

OptionProbability

49 or fewer

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58 or more

43

15

9

6

4

4

4

4

4

4

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