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Top stories

Courts and Law Schools Tighten AI Guardrails After Fake Citations Spike

US Domestic Policy

Courts and Law Schools Tighten AI Guardrails After Fake Citations Spike

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Rule

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

219107722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16296

4599

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.81%chance

8916881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

667

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18%chance

336854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will the PSUV cease to be the ruling party of Venezuela before 2028?

Jan 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.14%chance

71298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1337

748

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44%chance

191074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

431

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

Mar 11, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.22%chance

3705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Dec 27, 11:36 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.68%chance

16523

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1013

904

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?

Jun 11, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

4129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

Pickleball tournament uses variable paddle rules for mixed doubles

Oct 1, 6:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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