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Prediction markets for Run on the Banks

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1609

816

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18%chance

353105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

729

Will a piece of LLM malware cause at least $100 million in damage before 2028?

Feb 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.34%chance

162288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

Will an Emergency Fiscal / Budgetary Crisis occur in New York (NYC) under Mayor Zohran Mamdani 💰🤑🏛️💥📈 🗽🏙️

Jan 14, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.24%chance

6282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

54

Will the ECB adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jul 10, 8:38 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.04%chance

7151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

101

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