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Prediction markets for Run on the Banks

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

823

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.53%chance

353097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1776

721

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

Will I adhere to my study protocol in 2026?

Dec 31, 7:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.14%chance

5223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

831

Will an Emergency Fiscal / Budgetary Crisis occur in New York (NYC) under Mayor Zohran Mamdani 💰🤑🏛️💥📈 🗽🏙️

Jan 14, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.82%chance

6202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

Will the ECB adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jul 10, 8:38 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.04%chance

7151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

101

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