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Prediction markets for Running Point

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7386

3139

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.2%chance

8888227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86671

36670

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14083

6658

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.82%chance

814524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

838

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

71.37%chance

264519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1452

743

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

64.06%chance

284388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

788

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

40.03%chance

32325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12240

8170

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

23%chance

152257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2664

1592

Will Jose Luis Ricon run more than 864 quintillion floating point ops on a NVIDIA h100/b200 (or better) by EOY2026

Feb 4, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Point me towards a conceptually interesting market currently running on here.

Feb 21, 1:49 AM

00

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