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Prediction markets for Running Point

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Jan 14, 12:45 AMAug 31, 11:00 PM

1.53%chance

224226271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103868

5643

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

41.44%chance

556181732

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2705

2018

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.15%chance

515962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2367

423

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

56.76%chance

794434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

860

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.42%chance

234314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1342

790

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

264092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

791

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Jan 11, 11:43 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

77.66%chance

181832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1901

271

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

18.99%chance

91729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3131

1468

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Will Jose Luis Ricon run more than 864 quintillion floating point ops on a NVIDIA h100/b200 (or better) by EOY2026

Feb 4, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Point me towards a conceptually interesting market currently running on here.

Feb 21, 1:49 AM

00

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