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Top stories

Ukraine Uses FPV Drones to Destroy Russian Military Fuel Train Near Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia, Multiple Fuel Cars Ablaze

Ukraine Uses FPV Drones to Destroy Russian Military Fuel Train Near Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia, Multiple Fuel Cars Ablaze

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Russian army

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.64%chance

8323708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

1037

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

31

16

15

10

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Feb 8, 3:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90.09%chance

362912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1950

827

Will Putin be alive at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Feb 8, 3:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.85%chance

442338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

794

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?

Jan 1, 2:17 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

13.33%chance

82124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

392

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

201408

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a week, less than a month

More than a month, less than a year

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

36

24

19

14

3

3

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

241179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

886

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Feb 8, 3:32 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

36.48%chance

17951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

611

Will the ICC or similar tribunal find Russians guilty of war crimes re the Nova Kakhovka dam failure?

Jun 6, 1:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.25%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

949

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