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Prediction markets for Russian intelligence

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Who really did the attack on Russia 22 Mars 2024

Mar 23, 12:08 PMMar 22, 10:59 PM

425513

OptionProbability

Muslim terrorists (Official Story)

Muslim terrorists (official story) + government inaction

Russian Intelligence (False-Flag)

Ukrainian Intelligence (False-Flag)

Israeli Intelligence (False-flag)

American Intelligence (False-Flag)

94

60

10

6

4

3

If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?

Mar 12, 8:49 PMJun 20, 7:59 PM

36%chance

654007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

80

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

20.65%chance

231933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1961

510

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?

Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

88.85%chance

51400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2363

692

Putin dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

171197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10754

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Alaska

Other

Finland

Lithuania

Latvia

70

13

5

5

3

2

1

Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?

Apr 6, 7:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7419

OptionProbability

Boeing F-47

SAC J-50 (provisional name)

CAC J-36 (provisional name)

Other

F/A-XX (USN)

GCAP

FCAS

PAK DP

36

17

15

13

11

8

0

0

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

May 4, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.1%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

116

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

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