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Prediction markets for Russian intelligence

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

589636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

938

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.34%chance

345737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4524

221

Who really did the attack on Russia 22 Mars 2024

Mar 23, 12:08 PMMar 22, 10:59 PM

425513

OptionProbability

Muslim terrorists (Official Story)

Muslim terrorists (official story) + government inaction

Russian Intelligence (False-Flag)

Ukrainian Intelligence (False-Flag)

Israeli Intelligence (False-flag)

American Intelligence (False-Flag)

94

60

10

6

4

3

If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?

Mar 12, 8:49 PMJun 20, 7:59 PM

40.87%chance

623896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

89

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

17.47%chance

231883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2174

460

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Putin dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.64%chance

8902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8715

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Alaska

Other

Finland

Lithuania

Latvia

51

26

7

7

4

2

2

US cabinet member exposed as Russian agent by 2040?

Nov 26, 2:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.29%chance

14584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Does Mark Meadows have the missing binder of Russian election interference intelligence?

Dec 15, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.54%chance

13230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

74

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

May 4, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.69%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

121

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

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