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Prediction markets for Russian intelligence

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

46.35%chance

609746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

930

Who really did the attack on Russia 22 Mars 2024

Mar 23, 12:08 PMMar 22, 10:59 PM

435582

OptionProbability

Muslim terrorists (Official Story)

Muslim terrorists (official story) + government inaction

Russian Intelligence (False-Flag)

Ukrainian Intelligence (False-Flag)

Israeli Intelligence (False-flag)

American Intelligence (False-Flag)

94

60

8

6

4

3

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

12.2%chance

242577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2683

373

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

20.56%chance

241938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

509

Putin dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.36%chance

271795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

469

21

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?

Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

88.85%chance

51400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2363

692

Did Russia assassinate Lindsey Graham?

Jul 13, 11:06 AMJan 1, 12:04 PM

5.29%chance

17904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

423

24

US cabinet member exposed as Russian agent by 2040?

Nov 26, 2:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.29%chance

14584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?

Apr 6, 7:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7419

OptionProbability

Boeing F-47

SAC J-50 (provisional name)

CAC J-36 (provisional name)

Other

F/A-XX (USN)

GCAP

FCAS

PAK DP

36

17

15

13

11

8

0

0

Will Russia invade Greece in 2027?

Oct 5, 10:30 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

2.02%chance

7393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

87

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

May 4, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.1%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

116

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

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