Russian invasion of Ukraine News

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

39%chance

197129734

OptionVotes

YES

1148

809

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Oct 2, 10:56 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

24692142

OptionProbability

2030+

2027

2026

2028

2029

2024

2023

2025

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.51%chance

576906

OptionVotes

YES

1098

916

By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?

Sep 13, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.5%chance

406607

OptionVotes

YES

1056

814

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

2144

735

As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military?

Jul 19, 9:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.78%chance

434606

OptionVotes

YES

2720

762

[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Nov 16, 5:04 PMFeb 25, 3:00 PM

95.53%chance

204375

OptionVotes

YES

2059

892

Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?

Jan 17, 6:48 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.31%chance

131790

OptionVotes

YES

2004

901

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.54%chance

131230

OptionVotes

YES

1582

632

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18956

OptionProbability

It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

Mar 6, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30841

OptionProbability

Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Petro Poroshenko

Other

Andriy Biletskyi

Kyrylo Budanov

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Oct 7, 1:24 PMJan 1, 11:00 PM

28.18%chance

8138

OptionVotes

YES

111

Russian invasion of Ukraine News

Prediction markets for Russian invasion of Ukraine

Prediction markets for Russian invasion of Ukraine

Prediction markets for Russian invasion of Ukraine

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military?

[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Latest stories