Russian invasion News

French Army Chief Thierry Burkhard Says Russia Identifies France as Main Adversary in Europe Amid Hybrid Warfare and Ukraine Support

22 days ago

Oleksandr Usyk KO’s Daniel Dubois July 19 at Wembley to Retain Undisputed Heavyweight Titles on DAZN

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Boxing

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Oleksandr Usyk KO’s Daniel Dubois July 19 at Wembley to Retain Undisputed Heavyweight Titles on DAZN

16 days ago

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

75.21%chance

14177208

OptionVotes

YES

1696

507

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Oct 2, 10:56 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

20662451

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030+

2025

2028

2029

2024

2023

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

29.01%chance

5213736

OptionVotes

YES

8467

7679

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

49.18%chance

579586

OptionVotes

YES

1017

984

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.73%chance

225161

OptionVotes

YES

2052

747

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42%chance

414261

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

342872

OptionVotes

YES

1175

795

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

241179

OptionVotes

YES

1280

886

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18956

OptionProbability

It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.84%chance

9896

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

Mar 6, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30841

OptionProbability

Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Petro Poroshenko

Other

Kyrylo Budanov

Andriy Biletskyi

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Oct 7, 1:24 PMJan 1, 11:00 PM

24.03%chance

6113

OptionVotes

YES

127

Russian invasion News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Russian invasion

Prediction markets for Russian invasion

Prediction markets for Russian invasion

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

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