Russian military News

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.16%chance

10262933

OptionVotes

YES

20913

3301

If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?

Aug 20, 11:16 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3434275

OptionProbability

The U.S. keeps supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire

The U.S. keeps supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire

The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire

The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

49.18%chance

579586

OptionVotes

YES

1017

984

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.36%chance

826609

OptionVotes

YES

1175

641

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

14.78%chance

1285354

OptionVotes

YES

1406

1387

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.1%chance

435111

OptionVotes

YES

1280

781

Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?

Jun 5, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.15%chance

323453

OptionVotes

YES

1463

684

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

342872

OptionVotes

YES

1175

795

Will the ongoing Russian mobilization formally end by EOY 2025?

Jan 9, 6:43 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

26.29%chance

92245

OptionVotes

YES

1675

597

Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025?

Feb 23, 11:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

6.96%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

535

124

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15444

OptionProbability

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Decisive Russian military victory

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Collapse of Ukraine's government

Will there still be an active Russian military base in Armenia in 2026?

Sep 10, 1:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.58%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

124

Russian military News

Prediction markets for Russian military

Prediction markets for Russian military

Prediction markets for Russian military

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Will the ongoing Russian mobilization formally end by EOY 2025?

Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025?

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Will there still be an active Russian military base in Armenia in 2026?

Latest stories