Russian Victory News

Jan 22, 10:36 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

65.48%chance

332893

OptionVotes

YES

138

Sep 8, 5:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.46%chance

242262

OptionVotes

YES

1501

941

Sep 3, 6:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

302117

OptionProbability

One side wins

Peace treaty

Freezing of Frontline without official negotions

Other

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15444

OptionProbability

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Decisive Russian military victory

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Collapse of Ukraine's government

Prediction markets for Russian Victory