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Russians at War News

When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Jun 8, 9:11 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

13471132

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

90

82

71

55

21

0

0

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

20.7%chance

9113379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

1157

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

589636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

938

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.49%chance

465652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will China invade Taiwan before the end of Ukraine-Russian war?

Sep 2, 10:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

14.56%chance

342035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

885

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Jan 5, 1:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.15%chance

211513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

850

If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21005

If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2958

On the 12th anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?

Apr 8, 8:01 PMMar 19, 6:59 AM

71.64%chance

17806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

366

164

Will the ICC or similar tribunal find Russians guilty of war crimes re the Nova Kakhovka dam failure?

Jun 6, 1:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.02%chance

16606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

929

Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025?

Feb 23, 11:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

6.96%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

535

124

Will the ICC officially issue arrest warrants for Russian officials on the grounds of genocide?

Feb 22, 10:21 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

11407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

87

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