S2 News

Dungeon Meshi S2E1 on Netflix by year end?

Sep 29, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.76%chance

84935

OptionVotes

YES

5935

168

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143479

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

100

Exit valuation of Aglide (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72152

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$1B+

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

Exit valuation of OpenPipe (YC S23)?

Sep 13, 10:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3140

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M-$100M

$100M-$1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Cercli (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:41 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3140

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Magik (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

350

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Wyvern AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Neum AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Talc (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Quill AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Pure (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Exit valuation of Monitaur (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

S2 News

Prediction markets for S2

Prediction markets for S2

Prediction markets for S2

Dungeon Meshi S2E1 on Netflix by year end?

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Exit valuation of Aglide (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of OpenPipe (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Cercli (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Magik (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Wyvern AI (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Neum AI (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Talc (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Quill AI (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Pure (YC S23)?

Exit valuation of Monitaur (YC S23)?

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