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Prediction markets for Safe Points

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.36%chance

21974669799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19997

4243

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.5%chance

858745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1463

1051

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.47%chance

677189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

874

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.77%chance

426174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

907

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.74%chance

304266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

921

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

373500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

935

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.08%chance

221922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

151

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

87%chance

301888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

925

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

51%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

950

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Jul 11, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.01%chance

11321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

954

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030?

Jul 11, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.78%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

75

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