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Prediction markets for Safe Points

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.26%chance

22244746812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19617

4368

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.46%chance

899351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

1296

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.47%chance

677189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

874

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.47%chance

446214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

839

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

43%chance

304305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

88%chance

312138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1348

911

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.08%chance

221922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

151

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

53.59%chance

15676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

977

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Jul 11, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.42%chance

12402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

946

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030?

Jul 11, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.78%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

75

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