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Prediction markets for Safe Points

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.05%chance

21694598751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19297

4479

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.42%chance

848702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

1127

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50.63%chance

636895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

777

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.77%chance

426174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

907

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.74%chance

304266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

921

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

373500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

935

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.08%chance

221922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

151

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

80.65%chance

291481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

842

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

52.57%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

982

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Jul 11, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.01%chance

11321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

954

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030?

Jul 11, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.78%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

75

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