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Top stories

EU Plans New Sanctions on Russia, to Use €200 Billion Frozen Assets and €150 Billion Rearmament Fund; Russia Warns of Countermeasures

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Safe

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

837187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

85.28%chance

222148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1820

750

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

251693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

Safe to travel to Iran by EOY 2032?

Feb 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

71598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

352

Will there be a safe and sustainable way to get JACKED quickly by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.66%chance

281549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

843

306

Will all 18 "safe" Senate seats be won by their incumbent parties?

May 27, 4:26 AMNov 3, 6:59 AM

68.58%chance

261247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

685

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

US Senate 2026 """Safe""" Parlay

Feb 28, 12:45 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

42%chance

11399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

25

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

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