Safeguard News

Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections

Jan 21, 8:19 PMNov 3, 12:00 AM

7.95%chance

411856

OptionVotes

YES

3402

294

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

2277

439

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

1215

823

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

261549

OptionVotes

YES

1345

307

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

10338

OptionProbability

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

Other

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

Will TfL's planned Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

5267

OptionVotes

YES

173

148

Will a gatekeeper be deployed in the real world by EoY 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

May 6, 10:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66%chance

6126

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

71.3%chance

987

OptionVotes

YES

682

629

Will TA2 funding be solicited in 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

May 6, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.3%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

118

Will the newly-discovered Mexican tree alligators (Abronia cunemica) be declared extinct by the end of the year 2035?

Jan 7, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.85%chance

217

OptionVotes

YES

Will Texas firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Texas"

May 3, 2:22 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

43.49%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Will New Mexico firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in New Mexico"

May 3, 2:05 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

42.63%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Safeguard News

Prediction markets for Safeguard

Prediction markets for Safeguard

Prediction markets for Safeguard

Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Will TfL's planned Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham go ahead?

Will a gatekeeper be deployed in the real world by EoY 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

Will TA2 funding be solicited in 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]

Will the newly-discovered Mexican tree alligators (Abronia cunemica) be declared extinct by the end of the year 2035?

Will Texas firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Texas"

Will New Mexico firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in New Mexico"

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