Safeguard News

Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections

Jan 21, 8:19 PMNov 3, 12:00 AM

9.58%chance

1212102

OptionVotes

YES

3072

325

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 3:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

6.81%chance

92795

OptionVotes

YES

3699

270

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112422

OptionVotes

YES

1824

548

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.83%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

1485

212

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

51.14%chance

141756

OptionVotes

YES

1023

977

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

2530

620

Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?

Aug 26, 6:07 PMSep 25, 6:06 PM

77.29%chance

15849

OptionVotes

YES

1033

879

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

12496

OptionProbability

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

Other

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

Will the winner of Tontine come from Polybius's Tontine Discord server?

Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.49%chance

3270

OptionVotes

YES

294

Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own?

Sep 3, 4:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.74%chance

7108

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

71.3%chance

987

OptionVotes

YES

682

629

Will "Nice-ish, smooth takeoff (with imperfect safe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 9:33 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1006

964

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Prediction markets for Safeguard

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Prediction markets for Safeguard

Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Will the winner of Tontine come from Polybius's Tontine Discord server?

Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own?

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

Will "Nice-ish, smooth takeoff (with imperfect safe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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