Safeguard News
Prediction markets for Safeguard
Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections
Jan 21, 8:19 PMNov 3, 12:00 AM
7.95%chance
411856
OptionVotes
3402
294
OptionVotes
1724
580
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?
Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.83%chance
261906
OptionVotes
1485
212
Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?
Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM
40.38%chance
131556
OptionVotes
1215
823
OptionProbability
21
18
14
8
7
7
6
5
4
4
4
3
Will a gatekeeper be deployed in the real world by EoY 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]
May 6, 10:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
14.88%chance
10395
OptionVotes
239
42
Will TA2 funding be solicited in 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]
May 6, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
22.69%chance
4121
OptionVotes
185
54
Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"
May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM
71.3%chance
987
OptionVotes
682
629
Will the newly-discovered Mexican tree alligators (Abronia cunemica) be declared extinct by the end of the year 2035?
Jan 7, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39.85%chance
217
OptionVotes
98
71
Will Texas firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Texas"
May 3, 2:22 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM
43.49%chance
39
OptionVotes
97
84
Will New Mexico firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in New Mexico"
May 3, 2:05 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM
42.63%chance
28
OptionVotes
78
63
Will "Nice-ish, smooth takeoff (with imperfect safe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 3, 9:33 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.52%chance
16
OptionVotes
1006
964