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Prediction markets for Safety Pause

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026?

Mar 5, 3:43 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

2.97%chance

6114834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7212

849

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.51%chance

291797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

985

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.78%chance

11457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

247

[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development

Mar 24, 2:29 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

8427

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2026

14

13

9

9

6

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.34%chance

6114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

123

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