Sars News

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

Which German states will have Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW in their parliaments after their next elections?

Oct 23, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

296195

OptionProbability

Saxony

Thuringia

Brandenburg

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Saxony-Anhalt

Berlin

Saarland

Hamburg

Lower Saxony

North Rhine-Westphalia

Bremen

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Schleswig-Holstein

Baden-Württemberg

Bavaria

100

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

1057

959

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143479

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

100

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2100?

Oct 1, 12:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

53.62%chance

211055

OptionVotes

YES

1048

943

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

1249

925

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2031?

Dec 15, 10:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.12%chance

15560

OptionVotes

YES

1379

946

Will Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?

Feb 7, 7:25 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

56.38%chance

8302

OptionVotes

YES

1137

880

Sarah Knafo will be next French President

Dec 22, 6:39 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

5.3%chance

5251

OptionVotes

YES

186

Will Sarah McBride be censured in the 119th Congress?

Nov 21, 2:54 AMJan 4, 4:59 AM

20.29%chance

5185

OptionVotes

YES

198

Will Hong Kong be an SAR of the PRC in 2050?

Nov 13, 3:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

35.16%chance

5136

OptionVotes

YES

107

104

When will Jeff Cavaliere's SARMS use be revealed?

Jul 25, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.46%chance

110

OptionProbability

YES

130

Sars News

Prediction markets for Sars

Prediction markets for Sars

Prediction markets for Sars

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Which German states will have Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW in their parliaments after their next elections?

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2100?

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2031?

Will Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?

Sarah Knafo will be next French President

Will Sarah McBride be censured in the 119th Congress?

Will Hong Kong be an SAR of the PRC in 2050?

When will Jeff Cavaliere's SARMS use be revealed?

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