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Prediction markets for Sats

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

725

what will the sat score that minos submits to colleges be?

Jun 7, 4:21 AMNov 1, 8:00 AM

67575

OptionProbability

1450 - 1490

<1400

1400 - 1440

1500 - 1540

1550 - 1600

88

9

2

0

0

Will the University of California consider SAT or ACT scores in admissions by the end of 2026?

Dec 16, 3:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.78%chance

82292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

847

What score will GPT-5 get on the SAT?

Apr 24, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21610

OptionProbability

1560-1570

1570-1580

1580-1590

1550-1560

1540-1550

1530-1540

1590-1600

1520-1530

1510-1520

1500-1510

1470-1480

1480-1490

1490-1500

1450-1460

1460-1470

1430-1440

1440-1450

1350-1360

1360-1370

1370-1380

1380-1390

1390-1400

1400-1410

1410-1420

1420-1430

12

11

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Dec 31, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.58%chance

12570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

953

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (cell phone)

Mar 10, 7:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.49%chance

6340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

121

AI: 1580 SAT by 2025 (cell phone)

Mar 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28.79%chance

8112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

134

AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (cell phone)

Mar 17, 11:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.56%chance

695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

93

Will neural networks be necessary to winning a SAT competition by 2030?

Nov 4, 4:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

27

Will the mean SAT for 2026 be below the mean SAT for 2025?

Dec 12, 5:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.84%chance

378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

89

By when will SAT solvers be 10x faster (than 2023 on same hardware)?

Nov 25, 3:49 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

2030

2040

2100

40

40

21

Will a driver receive a penalty who is sponsored by a major event sponsor at any KOH26 Sat 02/07/2026?

Jan 23, 5:55 PMJul 2, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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