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Prediction markets for SAVE Plan

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.87%chance

3328342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

349

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Which One Piece character will have an Eye Patch at the end of the story?

Mar 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

433056

OptionProbability

Blackbeard

Original Joyboy

Other

Luffy

Zoro

Rocks D Xebec

Imu

Sanji

Koby

30

24

21

20

2

2

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 4, 2:24 PMDec 12, 4:59 AM

4.09%chance

422174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

880

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

25.25%chance

111173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

841

Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027

May 26, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.94%chance

9518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

40

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