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Prediction markets for SAVE Plan

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.05%chance

3228319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2992

334

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10072

2801

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 4, 2:24 PMDec 12, 4:59 AM

4.09%chance

422174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

880

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

25.25%chance

111173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

When will the EU abolish daylight saving time?

Oct 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11632

OptionProbability

2029 or later

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

53

20

15

11

1

1

If Trump wins, will we have permanent Daylight Savings Time?

Mar 10, 8:21 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM

25.52%chance

19573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

66

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

841

Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027

May 26, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

8484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.

Jul 24, 12:28 AMJan 1, 6:00 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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