SAVE Plan News

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

2727708

OptionVotes

YES

3000

333

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 4, 2:24 PMDec 12, 4:59 AM

4.09%chance

422174

OptionVotes

YES

2111

880

Trump publicly calls himself a king?

May 3, 9:25 PMMay 5, 9:23 PM

44%chance

321759

OptionVotes

YES

113

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

22.03%chance

111012

OptionVotes

YES

1881

532

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

YES

257

If Trump wins, will we have permanent Daylight Savings Time?

Mar 10, 8:21 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM

23.02%chance

13505

OptionVotes

YES

425

Credible evidence that Iran was involved in Bondi Beach shooting?

Dec 31, 8:02 AMJul 1, 6:52 AM

4.28%chance

16468

OptionVotes

YES

473

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Will Ford, GM, or Stellantis be bailed out by the US Government by end 2028?

Oct 19, 10:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.36%chance

9129

OptionVotes

YES

156

133

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

SAVE Plan News

Prediction markets for SAVE Plan

Prediction markets for SAVE Plan

Prediction markets for SAVE Plan

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Trump publicly calls himself a king?

Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

If Trump wins, will we have permanent Daylight Savings Time?

Credible evidence that Iran was involved in Bondi Beach shooting?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Will Ford, GM, or Stellantis be bailed out by the US Government by end 2028?

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

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