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Prediction markets for SAVE Plan

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

2426900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Which One Piece character will have an Eye Patch at the end of the story?

Mar 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

412944

OptionProbability

Original Joyboy

Luffy

Other

Zoro

Blackbeard

Rocks D Xebec

Imu

Sanji

Koby

44

24

24

3

2

2

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 4, 2:24 PMDec 12, 4:59 AM

5.44%chance

421674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

904

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

If Trump wins, will we have permanent Daylight Savings Time?

Mar 10, 8:21 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM

23.02%chance

13505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

60

When will the EU abolish daylight saving time?

Oct 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11367

OptionProbability

2029 or later

2028

2026

2027

2025

2024

45

23

13

13

5

1

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

40

Will Ford, GM, or Stellantis be bailed out by the US Government by end 2028?

Oct 19, 10:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38%chance

8121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

145

Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027

May 26, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.1%chance

689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

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