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Prediction markets for SB

Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

Sep 4, 10:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1711580

OptionProbability

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is not open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is not open source

93

6

1

1

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

Aug 29, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will Montana's SB 146 zoning bill be signed into law?

Jan 15, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.32%chance

72035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2799

357

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Sep 9, 8:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.56%chance

7860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

741

Will Scott Wiener's SB 53 become law?

Jan 10, 1:14 AMOct 2, 5:59 AM

62.72%chance

11731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

631

Will "My takes on SB-1047" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 10, 1:11 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

958

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

California SB 543 Passes?

Jun 24, 3:10 PMDec 31, 4:09 PM

59.18%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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