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Prediction markets for Scale

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.19%chance

861470662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15727

12532

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.12%chance

223159370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24750

3958

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?

Jan 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

109129265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4195

238

Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?

Dec 28, 7:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2414075

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Any Chinese Company

Meta

xAI

50

48

47

45

43

42

38

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

878668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025?

Dec 10, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

505555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

522

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.55%chance

332389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

157

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.01%chance

292033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

699

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.09%chance

281938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

674

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.9%chance

20985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

749

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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