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Prediction markets for SCALE

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

904510910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16189

11566

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.12%chance

225189797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44466

1857

Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?

Dec 28, 7:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2779803

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Any Chinese Company

5

5

5

1

1

1

1

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.55%chance

928964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2768

361

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.6%chance

333193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

614

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.57%chance

372686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

171

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.86%chance

122079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

283

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.43%chance

292044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

706

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

381311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

873

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.9%chance

20985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

749

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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