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Prediction markets for Scale Evaluation

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:51 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

21.64%chance

3919226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19061

5209

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:55 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

19.1%chance

3915919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20588

4839

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

21.33%chance

2710339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19404

4922

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

404686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

20.37%chance

11817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

107

How will the data shortage for LLM gets solved

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24738

OptionProbability

Multimodal Data

Synthetic Data

88

55

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1001

976

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.97%chance

2190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

190

Will "Scaling and evaluating sparse autoencoders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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