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Prediction markets for Scale Evaluation

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2418649

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

<10%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

20

16

10

7

7

6

5

4

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

216428

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

55

33

4

3

3

2

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4 [metaculus]

Jul 30, 4:08 PMJul 1, 4:04 PM

9961

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

63

59

55

52

50

48

35

23

12

5

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4928

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

41

36

5

5

5

5

5

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.12%chance

7734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

740

85

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.52%chance

7199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

104

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7109

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

82

54

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