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Prediction markets for Scale Evaluation

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3134079

OptionProbability

40-50%

30-40%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

26

24

18

12

6

4

4

3

2

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Aug 27, 11:26 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

98.62%chance

3622730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8513

118

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.06%chance

483141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

619

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

51

16

14

14

4

1

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4 [metaculus]

Jul 30, 4:08 PMJul 1, 4:04 PM

91011

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

56

53

50

35

23

12

5

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.41%chance

7738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

744

84

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.51%chance

4219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

193

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.0 billion USD on April 1, 2027?

Mar 2, 6:14 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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