Scan News

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.95%chance

24419019

OptionVotes

YES

2678

1780

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

71.02%chance

562877

OptionVotes

YES

1267

834

Will worldcoin manage to get 2 billion people to scan their eyeballs by the end of 2030?

Jul 31, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.6%chance

12878

OptionVotes

YES

1410

918

Which reason will LWCW 2025 attendees cite most often for disliking the digital session schedule? [ADD OPTIONS]

Jul 29, 1:17 PMAug 30, 1:00 PM

11860

OptionProbability

Other

Cumbersome/unintuitive user interface

Bad availability (responsiveness, performance, network problems)

Hard to “scan at a glance” compared with the paper schedule

Forced me to spend more time on my phone than I wanted

Harder to modify than the paper schedule

Bad accessibility (hard to read / small font / poor contrast)

Will there be a full brain scan of any mammal by 2030?

Jul 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.19%chance

17537

OptionVotes

YES

1001

920

How will the first artificial molecular assembler be constructed?

Aug 20, 4:59 AMDec 20, 7:59 AM

19354

OptionProbability

Protein Synthesis (e.g. DNA origami, RNA tiles)

Other

Additive Photolithography (e.g. 1 or 2-photon polymerization)

Vapor Deposition (e.g. CVD, PVD, ...)

Subtractive Photolithography (e.g. EUV photoresist)

Scanning Probe Microscopy (e.g. AFM/STM vertical atom manipulation)

Peptidomimetic Macrocycles (e.g. spiroligomer-based membranes)

Focused Ion Beam (e.g. sputtering or metal deposition)

Will the EU force messaging apps to scan encrypted messages for CSAM?

May 7, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.44%chance

5136

OptionVotes

YES

234

Vanilla Ice Cream – Häagen-Dazs most scanned ice cream on OFF by September?

Jul 31, 6:32 AMSep 1, 6:23 AM

65.87%chance

780

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will Meta have to stop scanning Marcel's messages?

Jul 21, 6:20 AMJul 28, 9:59 PM

53.78%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

Will AIs pay people to get their fMRI/EEG scans to model their brains for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

110

How fast scales deep alignment from preference learning (e.g. RLHF)?

Mar 26, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Scanning faster than capabilities

Scaling as fast as capabilities

Scaling slower than capabilities

Not scaling

Inverse scaling

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Prediction markets for Scan

Prediction markets for Scan

Prediction markets for Scan

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Will worldcoin manage to get 2 billion people to scan their eyeballs by the end of 2030?

Which reason will LWCW 2025 attendees cite most often for disliking the digital session schedule? [ADD OPTIONS]

Will there be a full brain scan of any mammal by 2030?

How will the first artificial molecular assembler be constructed?

Will the EU force messaging apps to scan encrypted messages for CSAM?

Vanilla Ice Cream – Häagen-Dazs most scanned ice cream on OFF by September?

Will Meta have to stop scanning Marcel's messages?

Will AIs pay people to get their fMRI/EEG scans to model their brains for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

How fast scales deep alignment from preference learning (e.g. RLHF)?

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Which reason will LWCW 2025 attendees cite most often for disliking the digital session schedule? [ADD OPTIONS]