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Prediction markets for Scheduled Actions

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.69%chance

728679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?

Feb 15, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

566889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

349

70

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will Rick Moranis appear in Spaceballs 2?

Jun 14, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:20 PM

85.73%chance

182619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2451

408

Do you think Bayern would win the second leg against Real Madrid

Apr 7, 11:20 PMDec 30, 11:19 PM

99%chance

92593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Dec 11, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101632

OptionProbability

0 (0 bps)

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

11 - 12 (275 bps - 300 bps)

51

27

9

4

2

2

1

1

1

Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?

Jan 24, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.42%chance

371200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

765

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Will Vix hit 100 for at least 30 cumulative days by 2034?

Feb 2, 6:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.58%chance

11347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

457

150

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Which month will CONTROL: Resonant release in?

Mar 15, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

216

OptionProbability

June

May

April

July

Other

August

27

18

14

14

14

12

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