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Prediction markets for Scheduled Actions

Will Israel or the United States launch airstrikes against Iran before the next Israeli election?

Jan 5, 9:31 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

69.8%chance

7515359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

658

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will Rick Moranis appear in Spaceballs 2?

Jun 14, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:20 PM

85.16%chance

162563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2395

417

Will Trump allow the US Mid-term elections to run in 2026?

Jan 14, 1:34 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

96.19%chance

302345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

503

20

Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?

Jan 24, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.42%chance

371200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

765

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Dec 11, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81013

OptionProbability

2 (50 bps)

1 (25 bps)

3 (75 bps)

0 (0 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

11 - 12 (275 bps - 300 bps)

30

29

12

8

8

4

3

3

3

Will Vix hit 100 for at least 30 cumulative days by 2034?

Feb 2, 6:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.58%chance

11347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

457

150

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

Will there be a full Marvel Studios live-action X-Men movie released before the end of 2029?

Mar 30, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.59%chance

11186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

333

186

Will Stranger Things Spin Off release by May 2026?

Jan 15, 4:36 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

5110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.19%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

823

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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