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Prediction markets for Scheduled Tasks

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5359

1039

Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?

Jul 15, 6:59 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

71210

OptionProbability

Gadi Eizenkot

Benjamin Netanyahu

Hung Knesset (political deadlock)

Naftali Bennet

Other

Avigdor Liberman

Yair Golan

45

24

17

7

4

2

2

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19814

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2027-2028

2030-2031

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

28

23

19

12

6

5

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

Will the DOJ open an 'election integrity' investigation for a midterm election before 2027?

Jan 9, 12:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

9120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

82

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