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Prediction markets for Scheduled Tasks

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18774

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

2044-2045

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2031-2032

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

21

20

18

17

13

5

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

U.S. Congress holds dedicated hearing on extraterrestrial life evidence before March 31, 2026

Dec 1, 6:39 PMMar 31, 12:00 AM

15.49%chance

9268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

Will the DOJ open an 'election integrity' investigation for a midterm election before 2027?

Jan 9, 12:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

9120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

82

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