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Prediction markets for Scheduled Tasks

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

34

25

21

7

5

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

U.S. Congress holds dedicated hearing on extraterrestrial life evidence before March 31, 2026

Dec 1, 6:39 PMMar 31, 12:00 AM

19.27%chance

7158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Will the DOJ open an 'election integrity' investigation for a midterm election before 2027?

Jan 9, 12:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.57%chance

8119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

81

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