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Prediction markets for Science Act

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.43%chance

538163185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4115

1886

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

273445

OptionProbability

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

Harvey mudd college

University of Southern California

Northwestern (new addition!)

Rice university (new addition)

Williams college (new addition!)

UCLA

Carnegie Mellon University

Cornell (new addition!)

Stanford

University of chicago

MIT (new addition!)

Princeton

100

82

61

46

43

40

40

40

36

29

24

18

13

11

0

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Credible evidence that Iran was involved in Bondi Beach shooting?

Dec 31, 8:02 AMJul 1, 6:52 AM

4.28%chance

16468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

21

US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026

Jan 3, 5:25 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

46.54%chance

282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

300

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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