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Prediction markets for Science First

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.59%chance

2128996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3186

589

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.83%chance

15119266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1597

1596

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

15.46%chance

5711934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2194

231

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not

Jan 6, 1:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

374318

OptionProbability

1/1/2027 - 12/31/2028

Never or on/after 1/1/2029

1/1/2025 - 12/31/2026

Before 2025

52

42

5

1

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.3%chance

151979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1384

723

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

151590

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

Before 2026

57

18

16

16

9

8

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.48%chance

151033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

641

Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030?

Dec 28, 9:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.62%chance

21945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

933

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.78%chance

11875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.17%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

100

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